Greenspan Says U.S. Risk of Recession Greater than 50%

In an interview with Spanish newspaper El Pais, Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said while the US is not currently in a recession, the odds of the US slipping into a recession were greater than fifty-percent. He went on to say that recessions are marked with significant dislocations in the economy including sharp falls in (durable goods) orders and large increases in unemployment claims.

Perhaps more interestingly, Greenspan concedes that the unprecedented period of strong economic growth and stable price levels the US economy experienced while he headed the Central Bank has likely ended and that current Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is facing a far more difficult economic landscape to navigate.

Greenspan also made his usual points regarding the increased flexibility and durability of the global economic system, using the 1987 stock market crash and 9/11 as examples where the economy held relatively strong in light of the shocks to the system.'

You can read the full article, translated from Spanish to English, here.

I also recommend reading the entry Greenspan Predicts Long Recession for US